Future Demographics
Understanding how young countries can shape the future.
Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to more than double in population by 2100, with a surge in countries like Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, and Tanzania that highlights the potential of their young populations.
Certain young countries are also expected to have a major increase in population. Niger, for instance, is projected to see a 491% increase, while Chad could see a 246% rise by 2100.
However, the stark reality of these projections is twofold: the remarkable demographic potential also brings forth the global challenge of supporting young countries where most future generations will reside. Investments in sustainable development are essential to ensure that these young countries are not just surviving but thriving. Without such investments, there is a risk of losing a generation to inadequate education, health issues, and unemployment, which would have global repercussions.
Countries with largest population, in millions.
Source: World Population Prospects 2022.
Source: World Population Prospects 2022.
As countries like China, Japan, and many within Europe face a decrease in population, we are ushering in an era when the world's demographic profile tilts towards a more aged society in these regions.
This shift carries many implications for the societies in question and future global dynamics. Economically, it could mean a higher burden on the working-age population to support welfare and healthcare systems due to a larger retired population. There could be increased opportunities for leadership as younger individuals might need to step into roles traditionally held by older persons, which could reshape professional landscapes.
Globally, the comparative youthfulness of populations in other parts of the world, especially in African countries, could result in time-bound shifts in economic and human capital growth. Nations with younger demographics could become new hubs for people power, innovation, manufacturing, and cultural influence, as their young populations drive demand and create new markets.
Top 10 countries in projected population gain/loss by 2100, in millions.
Source: World Population Prospects 2022.
Source: World Population Prospects 2022.
This dichotomy between aging and young countries suggests that future generations will navigate a world where intergenerational equity, both within and between countries, will become increasingly important.
It highlights the imperative for sustainable development that meets the needs of both the present and the future without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs, as defined in the 1987 Brundtland Report.
In essence, this demographic shift calls for a global reimagining of social policies, economic strategies, and international relations to foster a world that can sustain and empower its entire population across generations and geographies.
Crosscutting Trends
Rise of Megacities
Rapid urbanization within young countries is leading to the growth of megacities like Kinshasa, which is expected to have 22 million people by 2030.
However, this also brings challenges like housing, healthcare, education, and exposure to natural disasters like floods and landslides. Recent floods affected 256,000 and 250,000 people, and damaged or destroyed 41,000 and 21,000 houses, in Chad and Niger respectively.
This rise of future generations in cities highlights the need for comprehensive urban planning that integrates disaster risk management and sustainable development to safeguard the future well-being of increasingly young, urban populations.
Fueling Creativity and Innovation
Young countries across Africa and Asia bring energy, innovation, and a desire for social change.
For example, Kenya's M-Pesa mobile money service has over 30 million active users in 10 countries, demonstrating the impact of fintech in young countries. In Indonesia, young digital talent contributes to 16% of the country's GDP.
As new technologies emerge, these young people can become job creators and position their countries as hubs for creativity and innovation.
Climate Vulnerability
Young countries across Asia and Africa are highly vulnerable to climate change. For instance, capping global warming at 1.5°C instead of 2°C could boost GDP per capita in African countries by 5% by the year 2050, and by 10-20% later in the century, highlighting the importance of investing in climate resilience for future growth and stability. The Pacific Islands face the complete extinction of all their endemic species – those found nowhere else on Earth – due to a projected 3°C increase in global temperatures, emphasizing the urgent need for aggressive climate action.
India is experiencing longer heatwaves with temperatures 8°C higher than the national average. It is crucial for these young countries to implement sustainable practices such as water resource management, sustainable agriculture, and renewable energy adoption to secure their future sustainability, while richer countries must mitigate emissions as fast as possible.
Health Challenges
Healthcare is a big problem in young countries like Nigeria and India. Nigeria has a high maternal mortality rate, while air pollution in New Delhi caused over 1.67 million deaths in 2019. Growing urban populations make it harder to develop healthcare infrastructure, and there will be a growing need to invest in healthcare to make sure future generations have a healthy future.
Gender and Inclusion
Gender inequality remains a critical and prevalent challenge, particularly for young people in Africa and Asia, and prevents countries from harnessing the full potential of young people in all their diversity. Gender inequality significantly hampers young women’s participation in essential aspects of life in their countries, as well as their ability to make fundamental decisions about their own lives, bodies, and futures.
For example, every year, 12 million girls around the world are married before they reach the age of 18, which interrupts or severely limits young women’s access to educational and career opportunities. Lack of access to essential health services, including mental health and sexual and reproductive health services, serve as a barrier to young women’s full participation. Another hurdle young women face is negative gender stereotypes and social norms, which remain prevalent in many countries, particularly in Africa and Asia, and undermine the potential of young women.
SDGs and Beyond
Integrating the SDGs into future national planning processes is crucial as young countries grow in the coming years. For example, Morocco's Noor Ouarzazate Solar Complex, one of the world's largest solar farms, is expected to reduce carbon emissions by 760,000 tons per year. This initiative underscores the significance of integrating SDGs into long-term strategic planning to ensure that today's growth benefits ecological stability and resource availability for future generations.
The demographic profiles of young countries require urgent, strategic actions in policymaking, particularly in education, healthcare, renewable energy, infrastructure, and technology. By 2100, the future of these young countries will already have been determined by the decisions made today, significantly impacting their ability to leverage their demographic dividends for sustainable growth. It is crucial for policymakers to implement youth-focused, long-term strategies that address both immediate needs and future priorities.
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